KLIMOPASS 37

Forest managers face the challenge to estimate which tree species are suitable under current and also future climatic conditions. Within the project “Modelling climatic site suitability of main forest tree species” models for tree growth, mortality and species distribution are developed based on the German National Forest Inventories. The two aspects productivity and risks will be considered explicitly. The climate dependent growth model is used as a proxy for productivity and the model for mortality is used as a proxy for risk. Species distribution reflects the interplay of all demographic processes, including establishment. Based on these models scenarios under future climatic conditions are calculated. In a further step, we develop a method to combine the tree sources of information to provide a comprehensive estimation of site suitability.

Märkel, U., Dolos, K. (2017): Tree Species Site Suitability as a Combination of Occurrence Probability and Growth and Derivation of Priority Regions for Climate Change Adaptation. Forests 8(6). 10.3390/f8060181
Dolos, K., Märkel, U. (2015): Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf Wälder. Forum Geoökologie 26(2), pp. 12–15. pdf